NutriSystem, Inc. (NTRI)

- 18.28 (USD)

(+1.1 %) 9/3/2010 4:00:00 PM

NTRI Stock Report

Ockham Rating: Rating Withheld
Motley Fool Crowd Sentiment: Fairly Valued
NASDAQ: NTRI 18.28 (USD) (1.1 % ) 09/03 4:00 PM
Open 18.23
Day's Range 18.03 - 18.48
52Wk Range 13.86 - 33.54
Mkt Cap 479.5 Million
Vol/Avg 218000/323,332
Div/Yield 3.93%

Key Fundamentals

NutriSystem, Inc. Fundamentals
Price (9/3/2010) 18.28
Volume (9/3/2010) 218000
Last Close Price 18.28
10 Day Average Volume 323,332
13 Week Price Range 17.53 - 24.90
52 Week Price Range 13.86 - 33.54
LTM Revenue 535.4 Million
 
Shares Outstanding (12/31/2009) 26.9 Million
Market Capitalization 479.5 Million
Shares Held By Institutions 9.3 Million
Institutional Holders 216
% Shares Held By Institutions N/A
Earnings Per Share (EPS) 0.93
P/E Ratio 18.9753
Book Value Per Share 4.3949
 
Gross Margin 54.83%
Annual Dividend 0.7
Dividend Yield 3.93%
Beta 1.034956
Fiscal Year Ends December

About NutriSystem, Inc.

NutriSystem, Inc.is considered to operate in the Consumer Services sector. They specifically operate in the Online Retail business segment contained within the Retail - Online industry.

NutriSystem Inc. is a provider of weight management products and services. Its weight management program includes a portion-controlled pre-packaged meal system and complementary counseling. Food items account for 99% of NutriSystem's revenue. Customers purchase monthly food packages containing a 28-day supply breakfasts, lunches, dinners and desserts, which they supplement with fresh dairy, fruit, salad, vegetables and low-glycemic carbohydrate items. The customers can choose one of its pre-set food packages or customize their monthly food orders for their specific tastes. Most of its customers order on an auto-delivery basis, in which it sends a month's food supply on an ongoing basis. All their food and supplements are currently outsourced from more than 30 manufacturers. They sell their weight management programs to their end consumer primarily through a direct-to-consumer sales and distribution approach using the Internet and the telephone. In addition customers get access to online and telephone counseling as well as support from trained diet counselors. Customers do not have to pay an extra fee for this service.

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NTRI Revenue

Cash earnings is the most important factor in our analysis, but it goes without saying that if a company cannot produce sales then there is no ability to generate cash flow. By that logic we look very closely at revenue numbers as our second most important factor in valuing a company's stock. We have established reasonable Price to Sales per share ranges based on historical data of the last 10 years. For, NTRI the high and low end of the Price to Sales per share ratios are 3.12x and 0.82x respectively.

Notice that NTRI's current Price to Sales per share ratio is 1.33x, which is quite a bit below what we consider a normal Price to Sales ratio for this stock. Given normal conditions and a price of 18.05, NTRI is 33% below where we would expect to see it. This will beneficially factor into our final analysis of NTRI as it is not often that this stock sinks to these levels.

NTRI Cash Earnings

Cash Earnings is always one of the most important factors to review for a company and, more importantly, an investment in a stock. NTRI is above its historical average multiple of cash earnings as calculated by Ockham. Similar to our analysis of sales per share, Ockham looks at the last 9 years of cash earnings levels for NTRI to identify where the current high and low price levels have been historically in relation to profit per share. Again, we utilize a weighted average methodology which relies more heavily on recent years of data. This weighted average framework provides us with an average high Price to Cash Earnings ratio per share of 41.13 and a 11.02 low over the same period.

So, again, with a current Price to Cash Earnings per share ratio of 28.36, NTRI is presently above its historical range. Ockham Research is always focused upon the value that investors have placed upon a given metric in the past. In other words, how much would an investor pay for a particular level of Cash Earnings in terms of stock price, and how does that relate to today. Naturally, we utilize proprietary methods to accomplish this, but the basic premise holds true and is simple to understand. For NTRI, we are a bit negative on the Cash Earnings level given its higher than historical norm.

NTRI Dividends

When determining a company's future prospects for success, Ockham Research sees analysis of dividend payments as a key additional factor. Even though it isn't imperative for NTRI to shell out a dividend in order to receive a positive rating, it can be helpful to further our analysis.

The estimated annual dividend for NTRI is 0.70 producing a current dividend yield of 3.15%. Much like our evaluation of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we review dividend yields from NTRI against the historic high and low levels over all available dividend history. Because dividends are a decision made exclusively by management, we view a healthy and rising dividend as a sign of confidence and strength. The highest dividend yield from NTRI over previous years was 6.81% while the lowest dividend yield was 0.00%. The current dividend yield is below the historical median, which is slightly off-putting. We are a bit adverse to NTRI from this valuation metric.